Technology is advancing at an exponential rate often called the "Law of Accelerating Returns." If futurist predictions prove correct, we'll have advanced molecular manufacturing by around 2025, and possibly the replacement of humanity by vastly advanced machines a decade or two later.
This is a chronicle of our journey to that future, one advancing technology article at a time. I post the more significant and interesting articles as I come across them.
Thursday, March 27, 2014
Tuesday, March 25, 2014
Monday, March 24, 2014
Friday, March 21, 2014
Thursday, March 20, 2014
Monday, March 17, 2014
Friday, March 14, 2014
Thursday, March 13, 2014
Monday, March 10, 2014
Wednesday, March 5, 2014
Friday, February 28, 2014
Can space elevators really work?
http://www.kurzweilai.net/can-space-elevators-really-work?utm_source=KurzweilAI+Daily+Newsletter&utm_campaign=c3ac475f88-UA-946742-1&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_6de721fb33-c3ac475f88-281903081
"David quotes Arthur C. Clarke: “The space elevator will be built ten years after they stop laughing…and they have stopped laughing!”"
"David quotes Arthur C. Clarke: “The space elevator will be built ten years after they stop laughing…and they have stopped laughing!”"
Ultra-thin capacitors could acclerate development of next-gen electronics
http://www.kurzweilai.net/ultra-thin-capacitors-could-acclerate-development-of-next-gen-electronics?utm_source=KurzweilAI+Daily+Newsletter&utm_campaign=c3ac475f88-UA-946742-1&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_6de721fb33-c3ac475f88-281903081
"In addition, the new capacitor has a capacitance density of as high as ∼27.5 μF (microfarads) per square centimeter, which is approximately 2000 times higher than those of currently available commercial products."
"In addition, the new capacitor has a capacitance density of as high as ∼27.5 μF (microfarads) per square centimeter, which is approximately 2000 times higher than those of currently available commercial products."
Wednesday, February 26, 2014
Tuesday, February 25, 2014
Monday, February 24, 2014
Sunday, February 23, 2014
Tuesday, February 18, 2014
Monday, February 17, 2014
Friday, February 14, 2014
Thursday, February 13, 2014
Wednesday, February 12, 2014
Monday, February 10, 2014
The "Ubi" computer turns your house into a smart home
Still has a lot of features to add, but it's inexpensive and actually does turn your house into a smart home:
http://www.kurzweilai.net/ubi-ubiquitous-computer-beta-test-program-launched?utm_source=KurzweilAI+Daily+Newsletter&utm_campaign=8b405031de-UA-946742-1&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_6de721fb33-8b405031de-281903081
http://www.kurzweilai.net/ubi-ubiquitous-computer-beta-test-program-launched?utm_source=KurzweilAI+Daily+Newsletter&utm_campaign=8b405031de-UA-946742-1&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_6de721fb33-8b405031de-281903081
Friday, February 7, 2014
Solar becomes increasingly cost effective and produces more jobs than coal and oil combined
Thursday, February 6, 2014
Cybernetic hand that conveys a sense of touch
This is huge:
http://www.everydayhealth.com/news/amputee-feels-objects-first-time-decade/?xid=aol_eh-news_11_20140203_&aolcat=HLT&ncid=webmail23
It's a necessary step to get bionics that act just like the real thing.
Having to give the hand back, though, seems rather creepily like amputation to me....
http://www.everydayhealth.com/news/amputee-feels-objects-first-time-decade/?xid=aol_eh-news_11_20140203_&aolcat=HLT&ncid=webmail23
It's a necessary step to get bionics that act just like the real thing.
Having to give the hand back, though, seems rather creepily like amputation to me....
Monday, February 3, 2014
Wednesday, January 29, 2014
Note from the president of Plug In America
Happy first newsletter of 2014!
The timeline of electric vehicles spans back to the 1800s. During the EV “golden age” (late 1890s and early 1900s) 38 percent of American automobiles were powered by electricity and “America became the country where electric cars had gained the most acceptance.” The period between 1920 and 1990 saw some small-scale electric car projects, but most progress was lost.
In the 1990s, driven by research programs like the Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles and legislation such as California’s ZEV Mandate, we were introduced to vehicles by U.S. Electricar, Solectria and GM and Toyota which were faster and could go further than ever before. Some call this the “modern age”, but because development was purely research and legislative-based, and sales never reached critical mass, the term chosen by Wikipedia is very fitting. It was a “revival of interest.”
The “modern age” arguably began with a disaffected Tesla Motors developing the Roadster which began deliveries in 2008, and really solidified in late 2010/early 2011 with the start of Chevy Volt and Nissan LEAFs deliveries. Plug In America was founded on the hope that something would make this wave of vehicles different. That highway-speed electric cars would “stick” and become once more an indelible part of America’s transportation system. And that perhaps we could help.
How do we know this is an “age” at all, instead of merely another “revival?” Here are a couple of reasons:
Exponential Growth

We know, of course, that EVs are a great product. So just like in the old (but brilliant)shampoo commercial, we expected that early drivers would tell their friends. In fact, we’ve used an adage for a couple of years now—“It takes a driver to make a driver.” Seeing an exponential growth curve is a clue that drivers may be selling cars to other drivers. And now that we have three years of data, that’s just the curve we see in this chart (again from the very useful Luskin study to which we’ve referred several times already).
Just three simple numbers can convey this phenomenon. 17,000, 53,000, 96,000. Those are the rounded last three years of PEV sales. More on that last number in the 2013 summary below.
Variety of Models
Depending on who you ask, there are nine to thirteen new PEV models coming out this year. History shows that new models are often delayed, and never (in my recollection at least) come early, so some of these may be pushed back as always.
Diversity is important for any ecosystem, including the electric car industry. 2014 will be an exciting year because we will be welcoming:
- The BMW i3 with its REx option, which will offer a new combination of battery and auxiliary power
- Models from car companies who have so far stayed on the sidelines of the “modern age”. These include the aforementioned BMW i3 and i8, the Volkswagen e-Golf, the Kia Soul EV, and the Porsche Panamera Plug-In S-E (which has already started deliveries).
- Upscale versions of existing platforms. The Cadillac ELR and Infiniti Electric Sedan allow GM and Nissan to leverage their existing Volt and LEAF technologies and reach new customers.
- Hopefully a second model from Tesla Motors. The Model X may however, bedelayed until next year.
- Breakout sales of e-motorcycles
More Cars
There have been many predictions made lately. One of the most respected (and quoted) studies to come out recently was “10 Predictions for 2014”. In it, Navigant Research predicts 86% growth in worldwide electric car sales in 2014. If this is true in the United States (and the 3-year chart above seems to indicate this as well) we may be seeing two milestones in 2014. The first 15K sales month, and the doubling of all electric cars on the road by the end of the year.
So welcome to the modern age of electric vehicles. It’s so exciting to be witnessing this first-hand. We’re not quite back to 38% of cars (we’re still working on cracking 1%). But we’re headed in the right direction.
Thank you,
Richard Kelly
President
President
PS: The peak of the “golden age” was also the peak of lead-acid vehicle sales, the “revival of interest” in the ’90s coincided with the first NiMH cars, and the “modern age” began with the new lithium battery EVs. Referring to battery chemistry may be a bit geeky to some drivers who don't want to delve to that level of detail, but it remains a clear way to identify the different periods.
Plug-in Vehicle Roundup (December Plug-In Vehicle Sales and 2013 Summary)
First of all, let’s talk about December.
The biggest news is that Nissan sold an all-time record number of LEAFs, 2,529. Nissan recently announced that awaited production capacity has finally come on line. So we hope to see in 2014 what sales look like with less supply bottleneck. Pricing for 2014 LEAFs has been bumped up $180 for all trim levels.
The Cadillac ELR marked its first month in the charts, selling a few vehicles. This beauty has been called an “upscale Volt” and may represent GM’s first shot across Tesla Motors’ bow.
Looking back on all of 2013, it was really a great year. 96,000 vehicles is a breathtaking accomplishment and represents more vehicles sold in one year than were sold in the last 100 years.
The “real” cars made up the bulk (86%) of sales. The Chevy Volt was the winning model for 2014, with more than 23,094 sold. Nissan LEAF followed closely at 22,610, and the other models’ numbers start dropping off a bit after that.

In 2011 we heard critics say that low initial sales of PEVs signaled their doom. However many noticed that compared to initial conventional hybrid (eg. Prius) sales, adoption rates looked pretty good. The Luskin researchers did this apples-to-apples comparison as well and show that BEVs and PHEVs are actually doing a little better than conventional hybrids did at the same time in their introduction. And this is true even for BEVs and PHEVs individually. We all know how well hybrids are doing today, so this is likely just the beginning.
Monday, January 27, 2014
Thursday, January 23, 2014
Wednesday, January 15, 2014
Harvard creates inexpensive, organic carbon-based "quinone" molecules free flow battery
Great potential for storing energy for overnight use in homes with solar panels:
http://m.fool.com/investing/general/2014/01/14/harvard-research-team-has-breakthrough-on-battery?source=eogyholnk0000001
http://m.fool.com/investing/general/2014/01/14/harvard-research-team-has-breakthrough-on-battery?source=eogyholnk0000001
Tuesday, January 14, 2014
The movie "Her" emphasizes hidden technology
http://www.wired.com/design/2014/01/will-influential-ui-design-minority-report/
I already have a passive-aggressive relationship with Siri. A romantic relationship can't be far behind.
I already have a passive-aggressive relationship with Siri. A romantic relationship can't be far behind.
Monday, January 13, 2014
Sunday, January 12, 2014
Friday, January 10, 2014
Friday, January 3, 2014
Wednesday, January 1, 2014
Rupturing The Nanotech Rapture
I suspect the author is yet another person who observes near-term engineering problems in a narrow area, while underestimating accelerating returns and ignoring the developments in converging fields. He says he hasn't seen much progress in nanotech in the last 15 years, but then critics of the Human Genome Project scoffed at the 1% sequencing achieved after 7 years (halfway through the project), even though the project was completed a couple years ahead of schedule. But it's still an interesting perspective, and he does ultimately accept that we may achieve achieve the goals of advanced nanotech and the technological singularity, just not so soon nor through the same methods predicted:
http://spectrum.ieee.org/semiconductors/nanotechnology/rupturing-the-nanotech-rapture
http://spectrum.ieee.org/semiconductors/nanotechnology/rupturing-the-nanotech-rapture
Monday, December 30, 2013
Lockheed Martin uses graphene to purify water
Helping to eliminate 99% of disease-related deaths in the developing world:
http://www.nationofchange.org/weapon-maker-finds-cheap-way-desalinize-sea-water-1388415840
http://www.nationofchange.org/weapon-maker-finds-cheap-way-desalinize-sea-water-1388415840
Why is Google snapping up robotics firms?
To become Skynet? To colonize the moon? To beat everyone to the technological singularity punch? Inevitably, robots and AI will massively dominate (not necessarily the negative connotation) our future. Google appears to recognize this and is going balls-to-the-wall to be the one that makes it happen:
http://www.dailytech.com/Google+Wins+DARPA+Challenge+to+Produce+TerminatorLike+Robot/article33995.htm
http://www.dailytech.com/Google+Wins+DARPA+Challenge+to+Produce+TerminatorLike+Robot/article33995.htm
RIKEN to build exascale computer by 2020
http://www.riken.jp/en/pr/topics/2013/20131226_1/
30 times faster than the current fastest supercomputer, China’s Tianhe-2.
30 times faster than the current fastest supercomputer, China’s Tianhe-2.
Friday, December 27, 2013
Thursday, December 26, 2013
Google's Schaft robot wins Darpa rescue challenge trial
Monday, December 23, 2013
Breakthrough in Creating Fuel From Algae
http://www.nationofchange.org/us-scientists-convert-algae-crude-oil-less-hour-1387812791
It still takes more energy to produce than you get out of the process, but at least it's carbon-neutral and simple.
It still takes more energy to produce than you get out of the process, but at least it's carbon-neutral and simple.
Friday, December 20, 2013
Restoring Your NADs May Reverse Aging!
Not THOSE 'nads...
http://www.kurzweilai.net/a-new-and-reversible-cause-of-aging?utm_source=KurzweilAI+Daily+Newsletter&utm_campaign=2aa099345b-UA-946742-1&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_6de721fb33-2aa099345b-281903081
Another story on the same topic:
http://www.theguardian.com/science/2013/dec/20/anti-ageing-human-trials
And another:
http://io9.com/scientists-develop-an-elixir-that-reverses-a-known-ca-1487149703?utm_campaign=socialflow_io9_facebook&utm_source=io9_facebook&utm_medium=socialflow
http://www.kurzweilai.net/a-new-and-reversible-cause-of-aging?utm_source=KurzweilAI+Daily+Newsletter&utm_campaign=2aa099345b-UA-946742-1&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_6de721fb33-2aa099345b-281903081
Another story on the same topic:
http://www.theguardian.com/science/2013/dec/20/anti-ageing-human-trials
And another:
http://io9.com/scientists-develop-an-elixir-that-reverses-a-known-ca-1487149703?utm_campaign=socialflow_io9_facebook&utm_source=io9_facebook&utm_medium=socialflow
How to Communicate With Nanobots
Radio transmissions don't work well enough to communicate with nanobots that might inhabit your cells, so there has to be a different system. Here's a way to digitally communicate with chemicals:
http://www.kurzweilai.net/worlds-first-text-message-via-molecular-communication-sent?utm_source=KurzweilAI+Daily+Newsletter&utm_campaign=2aa099345b-UA-946742-1&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_6de721fb33-2aa099345b-281903081
http://www.kurzweilai.net/worlds-first-text-message-via-molecular-communication-sent?utm_source=KurzweilAI+Daily+Newsletter&utm_campaign=2aa099345b-UA-946742-1&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_6de721fb33-2aa099345b-281903081
Phone Robot Who Claims She's a Real Person
Unless you're paying attention, you would likely be fooled by her:
http://newsfeed.time.com/2013/12/10/meet-the-robot-telemarketer-who-denies-shes-a-robot/?xid=newsletter-weekly (listen to the audio files)
How much longer before she passes the Turing test?
http://newsfeed.time.com/2013/12/10/meet-the-robot-telemarketer-who-denies-shes-a-robot/?xid=newsletter-weekly (listen to the audio files)
How much longer before she passes the Turing test?
Thursday, December 19, 2013
Tuesday, December 17, 2013
Monday, December 16, 2013
Saturday, December 14, 2013
Moving Away From a Centralized Grid
Boulder is moving in the direction of local green energy production, something Drexler's "Engines of Creation" predicted would become a common development:
http://truth-out.org/news/item/20564-the-transformation-of-americas-energy-economy
http://truth-out.org/news/item/20564-the-transformation-of-americas-energy-economy
Google Has Bought 8 Robot Companies
Sounds to me like the best way to hurry the arrival of personal robots:
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/14/technology/google-adds-to-its-menagerie-of-robots.html?_r=0
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/14/technology/google-adds-to-its-menagerie-of-robots.html?_r=0
Thursday, December 12, 2013
Super Hydrophobic Treatment
Applied to electronics, boat hulls and even ordinary windows, I would think this could save a lot of money:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xcbIjqkLjMg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xcbIjqkLjMg
The Environment Over the Next 100 Years
Ugh:
http://www.upworthy.com/the-future-of-the-earth-s-next-100-years-visualized?c=bl3
I think nanotech may be the only way out.
http://www.upworthy.com/the-future-of-the-earth-s-next-100-years-visualized?c=bl3
I think nanotech may be the only way out.
Wednesday, December 11, 2013
NASA's New Valkyrie Robot
Watch the video:
http://www.theverge.com/2013/12/11/5198124/nasas-valkyrie-robot-made-for-darpa-robotics-challenge
It's speed is not impressive. Yet. But I can't wait to see how the challenge works out.
http://www.theverge.com/2013/12/11/5198124/nasas-valkyrie-robot-made-for-darpa-robotics-challenge
It's speed is not impressive. Yet. But I can't wait to see how the challenge works out.
Solar Power Small But Growing Fast
Projected to go from less than 1% of the market now to 5% by 2020 and 20% by 2035 (I'm hoping for much faster than that, if nanotech takes off in the mid-20s as projected):
http://news.yahoo.com/us-solar-power-sector-small-growing-115605453.html
http://news.yahoo.com/us-solar-power-sector-small-growing-115605453.html
Monday, December 9, 2013
Friday, December 6, 2013
Thursday, December 5, 2013
Documentary on Advances in Robotics
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8zP7yP8hdLE#t=94
I especially like the giant mech with dual Gatling cannons. The Japanese will ensure society is destroyed by giant robots before anything else does. :-)
And Asimo can take everyone's orders at once. Whoa, I hadn't been aware of that one!
And Asimo can take everyone's orders at once. Whoa, I hadn't been aware of that one!
Wednesday, December 4, 2013
Scientists build a low-cost, open-source 3-D metal printer
http://news.yahoo.com/3d-metal-printer-open-source-affordable-182234682.html
and
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2013-12/mtu-sba112613.php
Printing metal objects is the most critical step for universal 3D printing.
and
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2013-12/mtu-sba112613.php
Printing metal objects is the most critical step for universal 3D printing.
Monday, December 2, 2013
Amazon Looking to Deliver Packages by Autonomous Robot Drones
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/amazons-jeff-bezos-looks-to-the-future/
Turn off the ad video, then watch the "Amazon Unveils Futuristic Plan" video.
Here's a shorter version of the process:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=98BIu9dpwHU#t=30
Turn off the ad video, then watch the "Amazon Unveils Futuristic Plan" video.
Here's a shorter version of the process:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=98BIu9dpwHU#t=30
Friday, November 29, 2013
Thursday, November 28, 2013
Another Kurzweil Interview
Nothing really new here, but he's still drawing media buzz:
http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2013/11/ray_kurzweil_s_singularity_what_it_s_like_to_pursue_immortality.html
A side note about the video: The reason why most future fiction about life extension is dystopian is not because it's been out of reach for us, but because of the nature of fiction. Fiction is about conflict, and the easiest way to generate conflict in stories about the future is to make it dystopian. It's something to fight against. The reason we don't see much in the way of utopian futures is because they would be boring stories. Really, the only way to have utopian stories with real conflict and tension is to have the utopian society ultimately be or become dystopian, drop a character from a utopian society into a dystopia, make the utopian society a goal, that sort of thing. Which means that even if/when these technologies arrive, stories about the future will continue to be dystopian.
http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2013/11/ray_kurzweil_s_singularity_what_it_s_like_to_pursue_immortality.html
A side note about the video: The reason why most future fiction about life extension is dystopian is not because it's been out of reach for us, but because of the nature of fiction. Fiction is about conflict, and the easiest way to generate conflict in stories about the future is to make it dystopian. It's something to fight against. The reason we don't see much in the way of utopian futures is because they would be boring stories. Really, the only way to have utopian stories with real conflict and tension is to have the utopian society ultimately be or become dystopian, drop a character from a utopian society into a dystopia, make the utopian society a goal, that sort of thing. Which means that even if/when these technologies arrive, stories about the future will continue to be dystopian.
Alzheimer's May Be Caused By Diabetes
You can't really extend the life of a person if their mind is gone, and one way to avoid losing your mind may be to avoid getting type 2 diabetes:
Go Wilford, go Wilford...
Monday, November 25, 2013
Amazing iPad 3D Scanner
http://www.bitrebels.com/technology/structure-sensor-ipad-3d-scanner/
Combine this with a 3D printer to recreate any object you can walk around. Create virtual environments of any building interior for everything from games to business meetings to real estate tours. Huge potential!
Combine this with a 3D printer to recreate any object you can walk around. Create virtual environments of any building interior for everything from games to business meetings to real estate tours. Huge potential!
Will 2D Tin be the Next Supermaterial?
Might this be a room-temperature superconductor?
https://www6.slac.stanford.edu/news/2013-11-21-tin-super-material-stanene.aspx
https://www6.slac.stanford.edu/news/2013-11-21-tin-super-material-stanene.aspx
Tuesday, November 19, 2013
Monday, November 18, 2013
First Sustainable Single-Atom Bit Created
Only for 10 seconds...but that's still a billion times longer than before:
http://www.kurzweilai.net/scientists-create-single-atom-bit-smallest-memory-in-the-world?utm_source=KurzweilAI+Daily+Newsletter&utm_campaign=8ba5fae05a-UA-946742-1&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_6de721fb33-8ba5fae05a-281903081
http://www.kurzweilai.net/scientists-create-single-atom-bit-smallest-memory-in-the-world?utm_source=KurzweilAI+Daily+Newsletter&utm_campaign=8ba5fae05a-UA-946742-1&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_6de721fb33-8ba5fae05a-281903081
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Robots Just Had Their GPT-3 Moment
Robots learning without programming. https://youtu.be/cqwKceUSZ5Q?is=t9w-Ng50HBpHbMCy
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Microchip manufacturers are working with different materials to carry Moore's Law beyond silicon: http://www.technologyreview.com/comput...
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"A computer chip that performs calculations using probabilities, instead of binary logic, could accelerate everything from online bank...