I suspect the author is yet another person who observes near-term engineering problems in a narrow area, while underestimating accelerating returns and ignoring the developments in converging fields. He says he hasn't seen much progress in nanotech in the last 15 years, but then critics of the Human Genome Project scoffed at the 1% sequencing achieved after 7 years (halfway through the project), even though the project was completed a couple years ahead of schedule. But it's still an interesting perspective, and he does ultimately accept that we may achieve achieve the goals of advanced nanotech and the technological singularity, just not so soon nor through the same methods predicted:
http://spectrum.ieee.org/semiconductors/nanotechnology/rupturing-the-nanotech-rapture
Technology is advancing at an exponential rate often called the "Law of Accelerating Returns." If futurist predictions prove correct, we'll have advanced molecular manufacturing by around 2025, and possibly the replacement of humanity by vastly advanced machines a decade or two later.
This is a chronicle of our journey to that future, one advancing technology article at a time. I post the more significant and interesting articles as I come across them.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Quantum Teleportation Becomes Reality on Active Internet Cables
https://scitechdaily.com/quantum-teleportation-becomes-reality-on-active-internet-cables/
-
http://www.sltrib.com/home/3898355-155/albuquerque-weighs-getting-more-solar-power
-
"An experimental demonstration of a quantum calculation has shown that a single molecule can perform operations thousands of times fast...
No comments:
Post a Comment