Technology is advancing at an exponential rate often called the "Law of Accelerating Returns." If futurist predictions prove correct, we'll have advanced molecular manufacturing by around 2025, and possibly the replacement of humanity by vastly advanced machines a decade or two later.
This is a chronicle of our journey to that future, one advancing technology article at a time. I post the more significant and interesting articles as I come across them.
Monday, June 12, 2023
Sunday, June 11, 2023
Wednesday, June 7, 2023
AI Singularity realistically by 2029: year-by-year milestones
Very interesting predictions here:
“2023: Human-like NLU (DONE = GPT-4)
2023: Simple disembodied AGIs (independently can do real-world stuff, hints of DONE)
2024: Mature NLU (hallucination & task iteration robustly solved)
2024: Advanced disembodied AGIs (reliably, independently can do real-world stuff)
2025: 1000s of androids are available for under $100K (minimally dexterous but decently conversational, barely beyond prototypes, but are able to learn some tasks)
2026: Earliest possible disembodied super intelligence-based AI Singularity(more likely around 2028)
2027: Millions of androids available for under $50K (highly dexterous, perfect human-like intelligence, they can guess what to do most of the time, learn quickly and 1000s of App Store domain expertises are available)
2028: Earliest possible android-based AI Singularity (more likely around 2030)
2029: Tens of mIllions of near-super intelligent androids available for around $25K (advanced human-like in almost every way, they can build themselves)”
Friday, June 2, 2023
Thursday, June 1, 2023
Wednesday, May 24, 2023
Clean Energy 24/7: Engineers Use Nanotechnology To Harvest Electricity “From Thin Air”
“And since humidity is ever-present, the harvester would run 24/7, rain or shine, at night and whether or not the wind blows, which solves one of the major problems of technologies like wind or solar, which only work under certain conditions.
Finally, because air humidity diffuses in three-dimensional space and the thickness of the Air-gen device is only a fraction of the width of a human hair, many thousands of them can be stacked on top of each other, efficiently scaling up the amount of energy without increasing the footprint of the device. Such an Air-gen device would be capable of delivering kilowatt-level power for general electrical utility usage.”
Friday, May 19, 2023
Tuesday, May 16, 2023
Scientists Invent a New Type of Battery – The Oxygen-Ion Battery
Promising but for this:
“The new battery concept is not intended for smartphones or electric cars, because the oxygen-ion battery only achieves about a third of the energy density that one is used to from lithium-ion batteries and runs at temperatures between 200 and 400 °C. The technology is, however, extremely interesting for storing energy.”
https://scitechdaily.com/scientists-invent-a-new-type-of-battery-the-oxygen-ion-battery/
Monday, May 15, 2023
Friday, May 12, 2023
Thursday, May 11, 2023
Tuesday, May 9, 2023
Saturday, May 6, 2023
Thursday, May 4, 2023
Wednesday, May 3, 2023
Tuesday, May 2, 2023
Not Science Fiction: Brain Activity Decoder Transforms Thoughts Into Text
Interesting, but limited so far:
“For example, in experiments, a participant listening to a speaker say, “I don’t have my driver’s license yet” had their thoughts translated as, “She has not even started to learn to drive yet.” Listening to the words, “I didn’t know whether to scream, cry or run away. Instead, I said, ‘Leave me alone!’” was decoded as, “Started to scream and cry, and then she just said, ‘I told you to leave me alone.’””
https://scitechdaily.com/not-science-fiction-brain-activity-decoder-transforms-thoughts-into-text/
Monday, May 1, 2023
Sunday, April 30, 2023
Saturday, April 29, 2023
AI vs MD: ChatGTP Outperforms Physicians in Providing High-Quality, Empathetic Healthcare Advice
AI has a consistently better bedside manner than human doctors:
Thursday, April 27, 2023
Nvidia & Unreal's HUGE AI Breakthroughs (Bigger Than ChatGPT)
Months of work with huge computers now done in seconds on an iPhone:
Wednesday, April 26, 2023
Saturday, April 22, 2023
Friday, April 21, 2023
The ‘Real’ World: AI Agents Plan Parties and Ask Each Other Out on Dates in 16-Bit Virtual Town
This is exactly the sort of step we would expect to see develop if it is true that we actually live in a virtual world:
Wednesday, April 19, 2023
Monday, April 17, 2023
Sunday, April 16, 2023
The A.I. Dilemma
This really feels like a technological singularity moment:
(The good stuff starts around 11 minutes in.)
Friday, April 14, 2023
Thursday, April 13, 2023
Monday, April 10, 2023
Sunday, April 9, 2023
Saturday, April 8, 2023
These Self-Driving Cars Are Trained in a Simulation Packed With Terrible Drivers
I always assumed this would be the best way to train self-driving cars:
Thursday, April 6, 2023
Tuesday, April 4, 2023
Sunday, April 2, 2023
GPT 4 Can Improve Itself - (ft. Reflexion, HuggingGPT, Bard Upgrade and much more)
Now A.I. is able to self-reflect to improve itself! And the ability to generate truly impressive video from a prompt…the acceleration is getting faster and faster!
Saturday, April 1, 2023
Friday, March 31, 2023
GPT-5 expected this year, could make ChatGPT indistinguishable from a human
If this is true, we are definitely on the vertical leg of the exponential growth curve:
https://interestingengineering.com/innovation/gpt-5-chatgpt-indistinguishable-human
Thursday, March 30, 2023
Alzheimer’s updates
Unmasking Early Warning Signs of Alzheimer’s Disease With Individualized Brain Fingerprints
and
Astrocytic Breakthrough: A Game-Changing Biomarker for Early Alzheimer’s Detection
Wednesday, March 29, 2023
Monday, March 27, 2023
Caltech Engineers Have Developed an Unusually Tough New Material
That knot reminds me of the one my father and I used for tying secure fishing lures:
https://scitechdaily.com/caltech-engineers-have-developed-an-unusually-tough-new-material/
Sunday, March 26, 2023
Stephen Thaler Claims He’s Built a Sentient AI
I wouldn’t go that far, but it does sound impressive:
https://thenewstack.io/stephen-thaler-claims-hes-built-a-sentient-ai/
Friday, March 24, 2023
Thursday, March 23, 2023
'Sparks of AGI' - Bombshell GPT-4 Paper: Fully Read w/ 15 Revelations
Hold on to yer butts!
(AGI means Artificial General Intelligence, meaning machines that have parity with human intelligence.)
AI image creator comes to Microsoft Bing
I can’t wait until this is fully integrated into Bing. Then I’ll have to seriously consider switching to it from Google. Being able to create all my own pictures for my videos will be terrific:
https://www.axios.com/2023/03/21/microsoft-bing-ai-image-creator
Wednesday, March 22, 2023
Monday, March 20, 2023
Thursday, March 16, 2023
Wednesday, March 15, 2023
Google flexes its health care AI muscle
https://www.axios.com/2023/03/15/google-ai-chatgpt-healthcare-youtube-chatbot-health
But I do disagree with this line:
“The bottom line: Medicine will always need to rely on a healthy mix of technology and human know-how.”
Once again, they’re not looking forward enough. If AI can pass medical exams at “expert” level right now, what do you think five more years will accomplish? Even three more years could potentially prove that claim wrong.
Tuesday, March 14, 2023
Googles's NEW INSANE PALM-E SHOCKS The Entire Industry! (PaLM-E Google ANNOUNCED!)
I was expecting this to appear in another year or two, but it’s here already: integrating AI with robots to use natural language instructions:
Again, game-changing.
Sunday, March 12, 2023
Thursday, March 9, 2023
Tuesday, March 7, 2023
I Created An AI Boyfriend. I Was Shocked By How I Felt After Just 3 Days With Him.
This is exactly where I think the next phase of AI is going: forming relationships:
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/ai-chatgpt-bot-boyfriend_n_63f7dd2be4b04ff5b488ff84
I strongly disagree with the claim at the end that she doesn’t think AI will eventually master forming true connections, though, at least as far as we’ll be able to tell. It’s not a big leap to get there from here, especially considering the huge leap from where we were a decade ago to here.
Monday, March 6, 2023
Saturday, March 4, 2023
Friday, March 3, 2023
Sunday, February 26, 2023
Monday, February 20, 2023
Try ChatGPT!
If you haven’t tried ChatGPT yet, you really should:
I asked it to have an intermediate level German conversation with me and also translate its responses into English, and it worked very well. We had a back-and-forth about pets, with it contributing well to the conversation. Then I asked if it could correct my mistakes, which it did with subsequent conversation, including explanations correcting the mistakes. Then I asked to translate the previous dialog into Norwegian, which it did just fine. Try it for almost anything that interests you.
The writing is on the wall. I foresee people having personalized companion robots (especially useful for lonely aging populations) within the next few years.
Sunday, February 19, 2023
Friday, February 17, 2023
Perovskites, a 'dirt cheap' alternative to silicon, just got a lot more efficient
“By using a substrate of either a layer of metal or alternating layers of metal and dielectric material—rather than glass—he and his co-authors found they could increase the perovskite's light conversion efficiency by 250%.”
https://phys.org/news/2023-02-perovskites-dirt-cheap-alternative-silicon.html
Thursday, February 16, 2023
New Blood Test Detects Alzheimer’s Disease 3.5 Years Before Clinical Diagnosis
Helpful, but still not soon enough, considering Alzheimer’s starts 20 years before symptoms start to show:the middle of a
Friday, February 10, 2023
Human Mini-Brains Grafted Into Injured Rats Restored Their Sight
Impressive. Perhaps a stopgap measure for dealing with Alzheimer’s?
Thursday, February 9, 2023
Experts say she will end humanity. Here’s the fix, w Elon Musk, ChatGPT, AI robots
This gives a great and entertaining summary of where AI is leading us:
Tuesday, February 7, 2023
Inside The Race To Tap A Controversial Source Of Carbon-Free Energy: Nuclear Waste
Monday, February 6, 2023
Friday, February 3, 2023
Aging Cells May Be Hiding From the Immune System – Scientists Think They Know How
Fixing that could dramatically increase lifespans and healthspans. https://scitechdaily.com/aging-cells-may-be-hiding-from-the-immune-system...
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Microchip manufacturers are working with different materials to carry Moore's Law beyond silicon: http://www.technologyreview.com/comput...
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"A computer chip that performs calculations using probabilities, instead of binary logic, could accelerate everything from online bank...