Very interesting predictions here:
“2023: Human-like NLU (DONE = GPT-4)
2023: Simple disembodied AGIs (independently can do real-world stuff, hints of DONE)
2024: Mature NLU (hallucination & task iteration robustly solved)
2024: Advanced disembodied AGIs (reliably, independently can do real-world stuff)
2025: 1000s of androids are available for under $100K (minimally dexterous but decently conversational, barely beyond prototypes, but are able to learn some tasks)
2026: Earliest possible disembodied super intelligence-based AI Singularity(more likely around 2028)
2027: Millions of androids available for under $50K (highly dexterous, perfect human-like intelligence, they can guess what to do most of the time, learn quickly and 1000s of App Store domain expertises are available)
2028: Earliest possible android-based AI Singularity (more likely around 2030)
2029: Tens of mIllions of near-super intelligent androids available for around $25K (advanced human-like in almost every way, they can build themselves)”
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