Predictions Update

Here's a long, old but well-written article on the path to the singularity, using references to science fiction throughout the ages:

http://www.grg.org/charter/Krell2.htm

Notable quote:

"If we assume that self-programming ability follows processing power, very soon after the point that computers of human brainpower are mass-production items, we may expect that computers will attain the total information processing power of all human minds on the planet. They will have long since become the experts in the design of more complex computers, just as they are today the reigning experts at chess strategy. At some point not long after that, computers will recapitulate human history, human culture, and human thought. They will then teach each other everything we humans know in a matter of years (months? days? hours?), and then move on. The whole thing will happen in a flash, and if it happens at all, will certainly happen long before we’re really ready for it. The "flash" seems inevitable before the end of this century, and seems quite probable (given even modest extrapolation) before the middle of it. And, of course, we’ll be unable to stop it, anymore than we can stop anything on the Internet. Before we know it, it will be done."