Wednesday, January 29, 2014
Note from the president of Plug In America
Happy first newsletter of 2014!
The timeline of electric vehicles spans back to the 1800s. During the EV “golden age” (late 1890s and early 1900s) 38 percent of American automobiles were powered by electricity and “America became the country where electric cars had gained the most acceptance.” The period between 1920 and 1990 saw some small-scale electric car projects, but most progress was lost.
In the 1990s, driven by research programs like the Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles and legislation such as California’s ZEV Mandate, we were introduced to vehicles by U.S. Electricar, Solectria and GM and Toyota which were faster and could go further than ever before. Some call this the “modern age”, but because development was purely research and legislative-based, and sales never reached critical mass, the term chosen by Wikipedia is very fitting. It was a “revival of interest.”
The “modern age” arguably began with a disaffected Tesla Motors developing the Roadster which began deliveries in 2008, and really solidified in late 2010/early 2011 with the start of Chevy Volt and Nissan LEAFs deliveries. Plug In America was founded on the hope that something would make this wave of vehicles different. That highway-speed electric cars would “stick” and become once more an indelible part of America’s transportation system. And that perhaps we could help.
How do we know this is an “age” at all, instead of merely another “revival?” Here are a couple of reasons:
Exponential Growth
We know, of course, that EVs are a great product. So just like in the old (but brilliant)shampoo commercial, we expected that early drivers would tell their friends. In fact, we’ve used an adage for a couple of years now—“It takes a driver to make a driver.” Seeing an exponential growth curve is a clue that drivers may be selling cars to other drivers. And now that we have three years of data, that’s just the curve we see in this chart (again from the very useful Luskin study to which we’ve referred several times already).
Just three simple numbers can convey this phenomenon. 17,000, 53,000, 96,000. Those are the rounded last three years of PEV sales. More on that last number in the 2013 summary below.
Variety of Models
Depending on who you ask, there are nine to thirteen new PEV models coming out this year. History shows that new models are often delayed, and never (in my recollection at least) come early, so some of these may be pushed back as always.
Diversity is important for any ecosystem, including the electric car industry. 2014 will be an exciting year because we will be welcoming:
- The BMW i3 with its REx option, which will offer a new combination of battery and auxiliary power
- Models from car companies who have so far stayed on the sidelines of the “modern age”. These include the aforementioned BMW i3 and i8, the Volkswagen e-Golf, the Kia Soul EV, and the Porsche Panamera Plug-In S-E (which has already started deliveries).
- Upscale versions of existing platforms. The Cadillac ELR and Infiniti Electric Sedan allow GM and Nissan to leverage their existing Volt and LEAF technologies and reach new customers.
- Hopefully a second model from Tesla Motors. The Model X may however, bedelayed until next year.
- Breakout sales of e-motorcycles
More Cars
There have been many predictions made lately. One of the most respected (and quoted) studies to come out recently was “10 Predictions for 2014”. In it, Navigant Research predicts 86% growth in worldwide electric car sales in 2014. If this is true in the United States (and the 3-year chart above seems to indicate this as well) we may be seeing two milestones in 2014. The first 15K sales month, and the doubling of all electric cars on the road by the end of the year.
So welcome to the modern age of electric vehicles. It’s so exciting to be witnessing this first-hand. We’re not quite back to 38% of cars (we’re still working on cracking 1%). But we’re headed in the right direction.
Thank you,
Richard Kelly
President
President
PS: The peak of the “golden age” was also the peak of lead-acid vehicle sales, the “revival of interest” in the ’90s coincided with the first NiMH cars, and the “modern age” began with the new lithium battery EVs. Referring to battery chemistry may be a bit geeky to some drivers who don't want to delve to that level of detail, but it remains a clear way to identify the different periods.
Plug-in Vehicle Roundup (December Plug-In Vehicle Sales and 2013 Summary)
First of all, let’s talk about December.
The biggest news is that Nissan sold an all-time record number of LEAFs, 2,529. Nissan recently announced that awaited production capacity has finally come on line. So we hope to see in 2014 what sales look like with less supply bottleneck. Pricing for 2014 LEAFs has been bumped up $180 for all trim levels.
The Cadillac ELR marked its first month in the charts, selling a few vehicles. This beauty has been called an “upscale Volt” and may represent GM’s first shot across Tesla Motors’ bow.
Looking back on all of 2013, it was really a great year. 96,000 vehicles is a breathtaking accomplishment and represents more vehicles sold in one year than were sold in the last 100 years.
The “real” cars made up the bulk (86%) of sales. The Chevy Volt was the winning model for 2014, with more than 23,094 sold. Nissan LEAF followed closely at 22,610, and the other models’ numbers start dropping off a bit after that.
In 2011 we heard critics say that low initial sales of PEVs signaled their doom. However many noticed that compared to initial conventional hybrid (eg. Prius) sales, adoption rates looked pretty good. The Luskin researchers did this apples-to-apples comparison as well and show that BEVs and PHEVs are actually doing a little better than conventional hybrids did at the same time in their introduction. And this is true even for BEVs and PHEVs individually. We all know how well hybrids are doing today, so this is likely just the beginning.
Monday, January 27, 2014
Thursday, January 23, 2014
Wednesday, January 15, 2014
Harvard creates inexpensive, organic carbon-based "quinone" molecules free flow battery
Great potential for storing energy for overnight use in homes with solar panels:
http://m.fool.com/investing/general/2014/01/14/harvard-research-team-has-breakthrough-on-battery?source=eogyholnk0000001
http://m.fool.com/investing/general/2014/01/14/harvard-research-team-has-breakthrough-on-battery?source=eogyholnk0000001
Tuesday, January 14, 2014
The movie "Her" emphasizes hidden technology
http://www.wired.com/design/2014/01/will-influential-ui-design-minority-report/
I already have a passive-aggressive relationship with Siri. A romantic relationship can't be far behind.
I already have a passive-aggressive relationship with Siri. A romantic relationship can't be far behind.
Monday, January 13, 2014
Sunday, January 12, 2014
Friday, January 10, 2014
Friday, January 3, 2014
Wednesday, January 1, 2014
Rupturing The Nanotech Rapture
I suspect the author is yet another person who observes near-term engineering problems in a narrow area, while underestimating accelerating returns and ignoring the developments in converging fields. He says he hasn't seen much progress in nanotech in the last 15 years, but then critics of the Human Genome Project scoffed at the 1% sequencing achieved after 7 years (halfway through the project), even though the project was completed a couple years ahead of schedule. But it's still an interesting perspective, and he does ultimately accept that we may achieve achieve the goals of advanced nanotech and the technological singularity, just not so soon nor through the same methods predicted:
http://spectrum.ieee.org/semiconductors/nanotechnology/rupturing-the-nanotech-rapture
http://spectrum.ieee.org/semiconductors/nanotechnology/rupturing-the-nanotech-rapture
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