Cheating, but okay:
“In practice, the molecule brings the body into a metabolic state corresponding to running 10 kilometers at high speed on an empty stomach.”
Technology is advancing at an exponential rate often called the "Law of Accelerating Returns." If futurist predictions prove correct, we'll have advanced molecular manufacturing by around 2025, and possibly the replacement of humanity by vastly advanced machines a decade or two later.
This is a chronicle of our journey to that future, one advancing technology article at a time. I post the more significant and interesting articles as I come across them.
Cheating, but okay:
“In practice, the molecule brings the body into a metabolic state corresponding to running 10 kilometers at high speed on an empty stomach.”
“Specifically, increases in longevity of between 10 and 18.6% and decreases in the proteotoxic effect of plaques of between 30 and 40% were observed.”
https://scitechdaily.com/scientists-have-discovered-a-dietary-compound-that-increases-longevity/
It would be great if this obviates the need for prophylactic brain radiation:
https://scitechdaily.com/shielding-the-brain-a-breakthrough-in-preventing-cancers-spread/
“This could not only make EVs much cheaper than internal combustion cars, but it provides a new and promising form of large-scale energy storage, enhancing the resilience of the electrical grid,” Chen said. “In addition, our cathode would greatly improve the sustainability and supply chain stability of the EV market.”
Bionics are coming along nicely:
This is stunning: It appears AI took an hour to write a program based on a scientific paper that took the PhD author a year to do the same thing!
David Shapiro is one of those guys who has his finger on the pulse of AI development, and here he is noting that we are just a stones throw away from AGI:
FINALLY perovskite solar panels come to market:
Robotaxis are essentially here already:
There are at least four major robotics manufacturers, so Tesla doesn’t have a lock on this…but the robots are coming, and soon:
I’ll never use this AI, but it’s more exciting to me than the upcoming GPT5:
This home robot is already being tested in real-world homes! It’s so smooth it looks like someone in a costume, but the hands give it away. Supposed to be available early in 2025 for under $20,000, I think:
Some interesting insights into what’s going on in the AI industry:
An important innovation for a heating planet:
An analysis of the studies on the risks and benefits of fish oil supplements:
Alzheimer’s: https://youtu.be/NScltXkIO44?si=BkDqBgO5q4j2a4VC
Heart health: https://youtu.be/T6HSAhG7p1M?si=V4QbVLVE86SsXbn3
The latter suggests 840 mg daily has no contraindications.
My woo meter is twitching, but this sounds encouraging:
This line woke me up:
“Developed by researchers at The University of Texas at Austin, the AI algorithm correctly predicted 70% of earthquakes a week before they happened”
https://scitechdaily.com/artificial-intelligence-predicts-earthquakes-with-unprecedented-accuracy/
The topic isn’t interesting, but it’s an example of how AI is accelerating technological development:
https://scitechdaily.com/revolutionizing-lens-design-ai-cuts-months-of-work-down-to-a-single-day/
Very interesting. I think I skipped the mid-40s change but maybe not the 60s change:
https://scitechdaily.com/new-stanford-research-reveals-humans-age-in-two-rapid-bursts-at-44-and-60/
This is what is meant by technological advancement passing the dogleg of the law of accelerating returns!
https://www.yahoo.com/tech/korean-company-creates-mind-blowing-120000344.html
But it’s the FLAVOR that matters most, you numbskulls!
https://scitechdaily.com/juicier-glossier-better-superior-strawberries-unlocked-through-genetics/
“The data showed that only men with low total testosterone concentrations had higher risks for all-cause mortality. A key finding was that men with a testosterone concentration below 7.4 nmol/L (<213 ng/dL) had a higher risk for all-cause mortality, regardless of LH concentration. Men with a testosterone concentration below 5.3 nmol/L (<153 mg/dL) had an increased risk of cardiovascular death.”
https://scitechdaily.com/low-testosterone-in-men-linked-to-increased-risk-for-death/
Impressive and encouraging predictions, including nanobots. Haven’t heard much about nanobots lately!
Piglit’s hips, FF’s nostril and my big toe!
https://scitechdaily.com/cartilage-regeneration-breakthrough-ushers-in-a-new-era-of-joint-health/
With AI...perhaps not that far off?
A rather startling statistic:
“An estimated 96% to 99.8% of all online data are inaccessible to search engines—for example, paywalled media, password-protected corporate databases, legal documents, and medical records, plus an exponentially growing volume of private cloud storage. In addition, the vast majority of printed material has still never been digitized—around 90% for high-value collections such as the Smithsonian and U.K. National Archives, and likely a much higher proportion across all archives worldwide.”
It’s no secret: Investors and companies are pouring billions into AI.
Venture capitalists have plowed $12 billion into generative AI startups so far this year. Elon Musk claims his company xAI will train new models on a staggering 100,000 of Nvidia’s latest H100 GPUs; Meta is reportedly buying some 350,000 more. (In perspective, the world’s fastest supercomputer, Frontier, boasts a mere 38,000 GPUs.) Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon are also building out enormous AI server farms. And this spending shows no signs of slowing.
Goldman Sachs says outlays on AI infrastructure could total $1 trillion over the next few years—a number on par with annual US military spending or the GDP of the Netherlands. But there are strings attached: Big investment is tied to expectations of big revenue and profits. Eighteen months into the boom, investors are beginning to review the latter.
Some companies are clearly knocking it out of the park. Nvidia, which commands 80 percent of the AI chip market, is enjoying a historic run. The chipmaker has consistently posted revenue and profits beyond the market’s expectations, and in late June, it was (briefly) the most valuable company in the world, beating out Microsoft and Apple. (The stock has fallen off since then, but it’s still up some 140 percent year-to-date.)
But not everyone is raking it in like Nvidia. If Nvidia is selling “picks and shovels” for an AI gold rush, those using Nvidia’s equipment are still digging for gold. Exactly when they’ll strike it rich and how much they’ll unearth is a matter of speculation.
Though OpenAI is reportedly on pace to make $3.4 billion annually, an impressive number compared to last year, its costs are even greater. The Information recently reported the company is set to lose $5 billion this year and may need to seek new investment within the next 12 months. The publication also wrote that Anthropic will burn $2.7 billion in 2024.
The biggest players, like Alphabet and Microsoft, have deeper pockets. But driven by AI, their capital expenditures are growing fast. Alphabet’s capex spending is on pace to hit $49 billion this year, an increase of 84 percent compared to its average over the last half decade. Investors are increasingly scrutinizing the impact of these investments too. The companies’ cloud offerings—the huge server farms they rent to those building and running AI models and products—are the most obvious revenue-makers. But the sustainability of those revenues is dependent on the success of AI products.
And revenue from those products is lagging investment. This gap, which is widening, is what Sequoia Capital’s David Cahn calls the “$600 billion question.” That’s the difference between infrastructure investment and revenue in the industry. Barclays analysts put it like this: The industry is building enough infrastructure to support 12,000 ChatGPTs. While the technology is impressive, customer demand is unlikely to support that kind of supply anytime soon.
But the spending is also a bet on future performance improvements. This line of thinking suggests that if today’s capabilities aren’t enough to hook the world on AI, tomorrow’s will be. And to get to the next level—which will only be realized by bigger models trained on more (and better) data—companies need more computing power.
Anthropic CEO and cofounder, Dario Amodei, has said models being trained today already cost upwards of $1 billion. By next year, that number could be $10 billion, and in the years following, it could reach $100 billion—in line with the amount Microsoft is said to be spending on its 2028 AI supercomputer, Stargate. It's an eye-watering price tag. But Amodei thinks that if algorithms and chips continue to improve as they have in recent years, then there’s a chance those future AI models could be “better than most humans at most things.”
FOMO is another big driver. The CEOs of Alphabet and Microsoft have made that much clear. In a recent earnings call, Sundar Pichai said, “the risk of underinvesting is dramatically greater than the risk of overinvesting for us here.” And in a New York Times profile, Satya Nadella is described as being motivated by the desire to avoid missing the boat, as the company did with the internet in the early 2000s and smartphones several years later.
It seems clear the technology will have an impact—whether it’s through productivity boosting AI assistants or scientific discovery—and the impact’s size will scale with the capabilities of the models driving it. But exactly how big a splash it will make, how soon, and how this will compare to current investment isn’t clear, even to those at the helm.
“Of course, it’s possible…that all of this will be a bust. The models don’t turn out to be that powerful,” Amodei said recently. “That’s not my bet. That’s not what I think is gonna happen. What I think is gonna happen is that these models will produce a great deal of revenue. …That’s the bullish scenario that I’m betting on by leading this company.”
“But I’m not sure. It could go the other way. I don’t think anyone knows.”
Robots learning without programming. https://youtu.be/cqwKceUSZ5Q?is=t9w-Ng50HBpHbMCy