Technology is advancing at an exponential rate often called the "Law of Accelerating Returns." If futurist predictions prove correct, we'll have advanced molecular manufacturing by around 2025, and possibly the replacement of humanity by vastly advanced machines a decade or two later.
This is a chronicle of our journey to that future, one advancing technology article at a time. I post the more significant and interesting articles as I come across them.
Tuesday, June 3, 2014
Monday, June 2, 2014
Robot Velociraptor Runs Faster Than Usain Bolt
Faster and stronger and more enduring...I have to laugh at those who point to today's limits as if there won't be continuing and dramatic improvements.
http://www.iflscience.com/technology/robot-velociraptor-runs-faster-usain-bolt
http://www.iflscience.com/technology/robot-velociraptor-runs-faster-usain-bolt
Sunday, June 1, 2014
Friday, May 30, 2014
Thursday, May 29, 2014
Wednesday, May 28, 2014
Monday, May 26, 2014
Glasses-free 3D projector
Closing in on truly realistic 3D images without glasses, which needs different eye focusing for different distances, and the ability to change viewing angle to reveal or hide objects behind other objects:
http://www.kurzweilai.net/glasses-free-3d-projector?utm_source=KurzweilAI+Daily+Newsletter&utm_campaign=836712646c-UA-946742-1&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_6de721fb33-836712646c-281903081
http://www.kurzweilai.net/glasses-free-3d-projector?utm_source=KurzweilAI+Daily+Newsletter&utm_campaign=836712646c-UA-946742-1&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_6de721fb33-836712646c-281903081
Sunday, May 25, 2014
Researchers Reveal Smallest, Fastest Nanomotor Yet
http://www.iflscience.com/technology/researchers-reveal-smallest-fastest-nanomotor-yet
It's microtechnology, not nanotechnology, but it's still an important step in the right direction.
It's microtechnology, not nanotechnology, but it's still an important step in the right direction.
Wednesday, May 14, 2014
Tuesday, May 13, 2014
Monday, May 12, 2014
Parrot camera drone
http://www.cnet.com/videos/parrot-bebop-drone/
Camera drones are getting smaller and more powerful. How long before they're virtually undetectable and ubiquitous? David Brin's Transparent Society keeps getting closer....
Camera drones are getting smaller and more powerful. How long before they're virtually undetectable and ubiquitous? David Brin's Transparent Society keeps getting closer....
Saturday, May 10, 2014
85TB of data can now fit onto a single cassette tape
http://news.yahoo.com/sony-figured-cram-185tb-data-onto-single-cassette-014537232.html
How futuristically retro. Like an antimatter-powered carburetor.
How futuristically retro. Like an antimatter-powered carburetor.
Thursday, May 8, 2014
Astronomers create first realistic virtual universe
Wednesday, May 7, 2014
Tuesday, May 6, 2014
Monday, May 5, 2014
Human Brain Microchip Uses 9,000 Times Less Power Than a PC
http://www.livescience.com/45304-human-brain-microchip-9000-times-faster-than-pc.html
I think they meant to say less power, not faster....
I think they meant to say less power, not faster....
Watson finds pro and con arguments for any controversial topic
Could this be the first steps toward a cyberocracy that makes better decisions for societies than humans do...like driverless cars will make the roads safer than human drivers?
http://www.kurzweilai.net/introducing-a-new-feature-of-ibms-watson-the-debater?utm_source=KurzweilAI+Daily+Newsletter&utm_campaign=46c8d8958b-UA-946742-1&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_6de721fb33-46c8d8958b-281903081
http://www.kurzweilai.net/introducing-a-new-feature-of-ibms-watson-the-debater?utm_source=KurzweilAI+Daily+Newsletter&utm_campaign=46c8d8958b-UA-946742-1&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_6de721fb33-46c8d8958b-281903081
Sunday, May 4, 2014
Is the movie Transcendence plausible?
http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2014/04/transcendence_science_can_we_really_upload_johnny_depp_s_brain.html
The 2070 time frame for whole brain emulation seems to ignore the Law of Accelerating Returns (assuming it holds), and I understand we have supercomputers right now that may be able to handle a human brain (even if the software and brain understanding issues lag behind).
The 2070 time frame for whole brain emulation seems to ignore the Law of Accelerating Returns (assuming it holds), and I understand we have supercomputers right now that may be able to handle a human brain (even if the software and brain understanding issues lag behind).
Hawking, Tegmark, Russel and Wilczek on the lack of A.I. planning
Not much of an article, but notable for its writers and what they believe is coming:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/stephen-hawking/artificial-intelligence_b_5174265.html
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/stephen-hawking/artificial-intelligence_b_5174265.html
Wednesday, April 30, 2014
How a synapse stays stable when its proteins are renewed
http://www.mpg.de/8125352/synapses-stability
This may not sound interesting, but if we are to eventually replace our vulnerable protein human brains with tougher, more resilient materials, this process may hold the answer to how to do so without destroying the original person and having a materially superior copy live on in his/her stead.
This may not sound interesting, but if we are to eventually replace our vulnerable protein human brains with tougher, more resilient materials, this process may hold the answer to how to do so without destroying the original person and having a materially superior copy live on in his/her stead.
Monday, April 28, 2014
Blood of world's oldest woman hints at limits of life
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn25458?cmpid=NLC%7CNSNS%7C2014-2404-GLOBAL&utm_medium=NLC&utm_source=NSNS&#.U17DLfldVvB
I hope we get beyond fixing biology by moving to a non-protein-based platform.
I hope we get beyond fixing biology by moving to a non-protein-based platform.
Sunday, April 27, 2014
Thursday, April 24, 2014
Wednesday, April 23, 2014
Monday, April 21, 2014
Thursday, April 17, 2014
Monday, April 14, 2014
Sunday, April 13, 2014
Tuesday, April 8, 2014
Monday, April 7, 2014
Eric Drexler TED talk on nanotechnology
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ylOCEmlnyHk&feature=c4-overview&list=UU_qqMD08PFrDfPREoBEL6IQ
I've talked with Drexler. He's soft-spoken and not very dynamic, but there's some valuable info in this talk.
I've talked with Drexler. He's soft-spoken and not very dynamic, but there's some valuable info in this talk.
Thursday, April 3, 2014
Wednesday, April 2, 2014
Ordered carbon-nanotube design may increase conductivity of solar cells by 100 million times
If the news stories about 3x efficiency here and 10x more energy there are impressive, surely 100 million times is astounding...but what it will result in I have no idea:
http://www.kurzweilai.net/ordered-carbon-nanotube-design-may-increase-conductivity-of-solar-cells-by-100-million-times?utm_source=KurzweilAI+Daily+Newsletter&utm_campaign=84111bdf01-UA-946742-1&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_6de721fb33-84111bdf01-281903081
http://www.kurzweilai.net/ordered-carbon-nanotube-design-may-increase-conductivity-of-solar-cells-by-100-million-times?utm_source=KurzweilAI+Daily+Newsletter&utm_campaign=84111bdf01-UA-946742-1&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_6de721fb33-84111bdf01-281903081
Thursday, March 27, 2014
Tuesday, March 25, 2014
Monday, March 24, 2014
Friday, March 21, 2014
Thursday, March 20, 2014
Monday, March 17, 2014
Friday, March 14, 2014
Thursday, March 13, 2014
Monday, March 10, 2014
Wednesday, March 5, 2014
Friday, February 28, 2014
Can space elevators really work?
http://www.kurzweilai.net/can-space-elevators-really-work?utm_source=KurzweilAI+Daily+Newsletter&utm_campaign=c3ac475f88-UA-946742-1&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_6de721fb33-c3ac475f88-281903081
"David quotes Arthur C. Clarke: “The space elevator will be built ten years after they stop laughing…and they have stopped laughing!”"
"David quotes Arthur C. Clarke: “The space elevator will be built ten years after they stop laughing…and they have stopped laughing!”"
Ultra-thin capacitors could acclerate development of next-gen electronics
http://www.kurzweilai.net/ultra-thin-capacitors-could-acclerate-development-of-next-gen-electronics?utm_source=KurzweilAI+Daily+Newsletter&utm_campaign=c3ac475f88-UA-946742-1&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_6de721fb33-c3ac475f88-281903081
"In addition, the new capacitor has a capacitance density of as high as ∼27.5 μF (microfarads) per square centimeter, which is approximately 2000 times higher than those of currently available commercial products."
"In addition, the new capacitor has a capacitance density of as high as ∼27.5 μF (microfarads) per square centimeter, which is approximately 2000 times higher than those of currently available commercial products."
Wednesday, February 26, 2014
Tuesday, February 25, 2014
Monday, February 24, 2014
Sunday, February 23, 2014
Tuesday, February 18, 2014
Monday, February 17, 2014
Friday, February 14, 2014
Thursday, February 13, 2014
Wednesday, February 12, 2014
Monday, February 10, 2014
The "Ubi" computer turns your house into a smart home
Still has a lot of features to add, but it's inexpensive and actually does turn your house into a smart home:
http://www.kurzweilai.net/ubi-ubiquitous-computer-beta-test-program-launched?utm_source=KurzweilAI+Daily+Newsletter&utm_campaign=8b405031de-UA-946742-1&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_6de721fb33-8b405031de-281903081
http://www.kurzweilai.net/ubi-ubiquitous-computer-beta-test-program-launched?utm_source=KurzweilAI+Daily+Newsletter&utm_campaign=8b405031de-UA-946742-1&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_6de721fb33-8b405031de-281903081
Friday, February 7, 2014
Solar becomes increasingly cost effective and produces more jobs than coal and oil combined
Thursday, February 6, 2014
Cybernetic hand that conveys a sense of touch
This is huge:
http://www.everydayhealth.com/news/amputee-feels-objects-first-time-decade/?xid=aol_eh-news_11_20140203_&aolcat=HLT&ncid=webmail23
It's a necessary step to get bionics that act just like the real thing.
Having to give the hand back, though, seems rather creepily like amputation to me....
http://www.everydayhealth.com/news/amputee-feels-objects-first-time-decade/?xid=aol_eh-news_11_20140203_&aolcat=HLT&ncid=webmail23
It's a necessary step to get bionics that act just like the real thing.
Having to give the hand back, though, seems rather creepily like amputation to me....
Monday, February 3, 2014
Wednesday, January 29, 2014
Note from the president of Plug In America
Happy first newsletter of 2014!
The timeline of electric vehicles spans back to the 1800s. During the EV “golden age” (late 1890s and early 1900s) 38 percent of American automobiles were powered by electricity and “America became the country where electric cars had gained the most acceptance.” The period between 1920 and 1990 saw some small-scale electric car projects, but most progress was lost.
In the 1990s, driven by research programs like the Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles and legislation such as California’s ZEV Mandate, we were introduced to vehicles by U.S. Electricar, Solectria and GM and Toyota which were faster and could go further than ever before. Some call this the “modern age”, but because development was purely research and legislative-based, and sales never reached critical mass, the term chosen by Wikipedia is very fitting. It was a “revival of interest.”
The “modern age” arguably began with a disaffected Tesla Motors developing the Roadster which began deliveries in 2008, and really solidified in late 2010/early 2011 with the start of Chevy Volt and Nissan LEAFs deliveries. Plug In America was founded on the hope that something would make this wave of vehicles different. That highway-speed electric cars would “stick” and become once more an indelible part of America’s transportation system. And that perhaps we could help.
How do we know this is an “age” at all, instead of merely another “revival?” Here are a couple of reasons:
Exponential Growth

We know, of course, that EVs are a great product. So just like in the old (but brilliant)shampoo commercial, we expected that early drivers would tell their friends. In fact, we’ve used an adage for a couple of years now—“It takes a driver to make a driver.” Seeing an exponential growth curve is a clue that drivers may be selling cars to other drivers. And now that we have three years of data, that’s just the curve we see in this chart (again from the very useful Luskin study to which we’ve referred several times already).
Just three simple numbers can convey this phenomenon. 17,000, 53,000, 96,000. Those are the rounded last three years of PEV sales. More on that last number in the 2013 summary below.
Variety of Models
Depending on who you ask, there are nine to thirteen new PEV models coming out this year. History shows that new models are often delayed, and never (in my recollection at least) come early, so some of these may be pushed back as always.
Diversity is important for any ecosystem, including the electric car industry. 2014 will be an exciting year because we will be welcoming:
- The BMW i3 with its REx option, which will offer a new combination of battery and auxiliary power
- Models from car companies who have so far stayed on the sidelines of the “modern age”. These include the aforementioned BMW i3 and i8, the Volkswagen e-Golf, the Kia Soul EV, and the Porsche Panamera Plug-In S-E (which has already started deliveries).
- Upscale versions of existing platforms. The Cadillac ELR and Infiniti Electric Sedan allow GM and Nissan to leverage their existing Volt and LEAF technologies and reach new customers.
- Hopefully a second model from Tesla Motors. The Model X may however, bedelayed until next year.
- Breakout sales of e-motorcycles
More Cars
There have been many predictions made lately. One of the most respected (and quoted) studies to come out recently was “10 Predictions for 2014”. In it, Navigant Research predicts 86% growth in worldwide electric car sales in 2014. If this is true in the United States (and the 3-year chart above seems to indicate this as well) we may be seeing two milestones in 2014. The first 15K sales month, and the doubling of all electric cars on the road by the end of the year.
So welcome to the modern age of electric vehicles. It’s so exciting to be witnessing this first-hand. We’re not quite back to 38% of cars (we’re still working on cracking 1%). But we’re headed in the right direction.
Thank you,
Richard Kelly
President
President
PS: The peak of the “golden age” was also the peak of lead-acid vehicle sales, the “revival of interest” in the ’90s coincided with the first NiMH cars, and the “modern age” began with the new lithium battery EVs. Referring to battery chemistry may be a bit geeky to some drivers who don't want to delve to that level of detail, but it remains a clear way to identify the different periods.
Plug-in Vehicle Roundup (December Plug-In Vehicle Sales and 2013 Summary)
First of all, let’s talk about December.
The biggest news is that Nissan sold an all-time record number of LEAFs, 2,529. Nissan recently announced that awaited production capacity has finally come on line. So we hope to see in 2014 what sales look like with less supply bottleneck. Pricing for 2014 LEAFs has been bumped up $180 for all trim levels.
The Cadillac ELR marked its first month in the charts, selling a few vehicles. This beauty has been called an “upscale Volt” and may represent GM’s first shot across Tesla Motors’ bow.
Looking back on all of 2013, it was really a great year. 96,000 vehicles is a breathtaking accomplishment and represents more vehicles sold in one year than were sold in the last 100 years.
The “real” cars made up the bulk (86%) of sales. The Chevy Volt was the winning model for 2014, with more than 23,094 sold. Nissan LEAF followed closely at 22,610, and the other models’ numbers start dropping off a bit after that.

In 2011 we heard critics say that low initial sales of PEVs signaled their doom. However many noticed that compared to initial conventional hybrid (eg. Prius) sales, adoption rates looked pretty good. The Luskin researchers did this apples-to-apples comparison as well and show that BEVs and PHEVs are actually doing a little better than conventional hybrids did at the same time in their introduction. And this is true even for BEVs and PHEVs individually. We all know how well hybrids are doing today, so this is likely just the beginning.
Monday, January 27, 2014
Thursday, January 23, 2014
Wednesday, January 15, 2014
Harvard creates inexpensive, organic carbon-based "quinone" molecules free flow battery
Great potential for storing energy for overnight use in homes with solar panels:
http://m.fool.com/investing/general/2014/01/14/harvard-research-team-has-breakthrough-on-battery?source=eogyholnk0000001
http://m.fool.com/investing/general/2014/01/14/harvard-research-team-has-breakthrough-on-battery?source=eogyholnk0000001
Tuesday, January 14, 2014
The movie "Her" emphasizes hidden technology
http://www.wired.com/design/2014/01/will-influential-ui-design-minority-report/
I already have a passive-aggressive relationship with Siri. A romantic relationship can't be far behind.
I already have a passive-aggressive relationship with Siri. A romantic relationship can't be far behind.
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