Things People Believed 10 Years Ago That Ended Up Being Wrong

It's both amusing and disturbing how wrong prognostication can be even just a few years out:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=shbew3ajiOA&feature=youtu.be

A New Technology Could Provide 40% of the World’s Energy Needs, and It’s Carbon-Neutral

Yet another option:

https://futurism.com/a-new-technology-could-provide-40-of-the-worlds-energy-needs-and-its-carbon-neutral/

MIT Just Unveiled A Technique to Mass Produce Quantum Computers

https://futurism.com/mit-just-unveiled-a-technique-to-mass-produce-quantum-computers/

Google’s AI-Building AI Is a Step Toward Self-Improving AI

https://singularityhub.com/2017/05/31/googles-ai-building-ai-is-a-step-toward-self-improving-ai/

CRISPR Gene Editing May Cause Hundreds of Unintended Mutations in DNA

But there's a potential downside to using CRISPR:

https://futurism.com/4-crispr-may-cause-unintended-mutations-new-study-shows/

In Just a Few Short Years, CRISPR Has Sparked a Research Revolution

You don't hear much about this in the popular press, but it is a major game-changer:

https://futurism.com/just-few-short-years-crispr-sparked-research-revolution/

The Solar Industry Is Creating Jobs 17 Times Faster Than the Rest of the U.S. Economy

The boom continues:

https://futurism.com/solar-industry-creating-jobs-17-times-faster-rest-us-economy/

NASA Is Fast-Tracking Plans to Explore a Metal Asteroid Worth $10,000 Quadrillion

What a way to crash the economy:

https://futurism.com/nasa-fast-tracking-plans-explore-metal-asteroid-worth-10000-quadrillion/

These Robots Can Teach Other Robots How to Do New Things

Robots teaching robots by demonstration is cool...but better yet would be a simple transfer of the learned programming from one robot to another:

https://singularityhub.com/2017/05/26/these-robots-can-teach-other-robots-how-to-do-new-things

Limitless Hydrogen Energy? Breakthrough Seen in Separating H from H2O

This could be game-changing:

http://bigthink.com/robby-berman/researchers-announce-breakthrough-in-separating-hydrogen-from-h2o

Alphabet Machine Beats World's Top Go Player in a Victory for AI

Don't brag that A.I. will never beat you:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-25/alphabet-machine-beats-world-s-top-go-player-in-a-victory-for-ai

Reporter's notebook: Be warned: $25 oil is coming, and along with it, a new world order

Looking forward to it:

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/23/reporters-notebook-be-warned-us25-oil-is-coming-and-along-with-it-a-new-world-order.html

This “Living” Clothing Keeps You Cool by Breathing

Bacterial clothing. Cool (literally and figuratively):

https://futurism.com/this-living-clothing-keeps-you-cool-by-breathing/

Carbon’s Bold Mission to Finally Dematerialize Manufacturing

Not yet a nanofactory, but still cool:

https://singularityhub.com/2017/05/22/carbons-bold-mission-to-finally-dematerialize-manufacturing

I've officially gone solar

Yup, today the installer (California Solar Electric Company) is finishing up the installation on my rooftop: twelve 345w SunPower panels, which is about the amount of electricity I use yearly.

Why did I pull the trigger now, instead of waiting until viable battery systems become available so I can be completely independent of the grid? Well, several reasons:

1. The 30% federal tax rebate will end in a few years and it may not be renewed, considering solar is now cheaper than any other form of electricity in many parts of the country. 
2. I'm not confident Der Gropenfuror and his spine-challenged GOP shitbirds won't end the rebate sooner. 
3. The cost of electricity from the utility (PG&E, in my case) keeps climbing (an average of at least 5% per year). 
4. PG&E increases the price of energy on the 15 highest-demand (read hottest) summer days between 1 p.m. and 7 p.m....which means the price for electricity quadruples when you need it most. 
5. A fully independent system would require the additional cost of an expensive battery. 
6. I would need to have a much larger solar system to cover my single most energy-using day of the year (and hope there's no solar eclipse), rather than just cover the average energy usage over the entire year. 
7. I received bids from four well-rated solar installation companies, and one of them wanted my business enough to give me a 10% discount (more than the cost of one solar panel). 
8. If I ever sell this place, the solar system should add more value than I spent.

Point #6 deserves some further detail. The program is called Net Metering, and the best way to look at how it works is to think of the grid as a giant battery. During the day, when electricity demand is highest, I sell my excess power to the grid at an expensive rate (say 40 cents per kwh). At night, when my system isn't generating any power but energy demand is low, I buy electricity from PG&E for a low rate (say 14 cents per kwh). At the end of the year, the total is tallied up, and if I used more electricity than I produced, I pay PG&E a little. And if I produced more electricity than I used, PG&E pays me a little. This is called "True-Up," for some reason.

One might think it would be advantageous for home solar systems to produce as much power as possible so you get paid a lot of money at the end of the year. However, PG&E only pays 3 cents per kwh for any energy it buys from the True-Up...which means that if you bought a large system that generates more power than you use on average, it'll take much longer to recoup the cost of the panels that generate that extra energy. Thus, ideally the True-Up is 0 cents. That's hard to calculate exactly, of course, but it's generally better to err on the conservative use side, since it's more cost effective to owe PG&E a little money than to have them owe you.

The system should pay for itself within six or seven years (less time if PG&E keeps jacking its rates). After that I should have at least 15 years of free electricity (although I anticipate continuing improvements in solar technology, and will be able to add them to the system as desired). And when viable batteries become available, they will be easy enough to integrate into the existing system.

So that's why I did it. You may want to consider it for your own neck of the woods. The more electricity you use, the more cost effective it is to switch.

Cheers,
Derek

Can you lengthen your telomeres to live longer?

In case you were thinking it would be great if we could lengthen our telomeres to live longer...well, not so much:

http://www.nutritionaction.com/daily/what-to-eat/can-you-lengthen-your-telomeres-to-live-longer/

Mercedes Just Made a Huge Play That Could Threaten Tesla’s Home-Battery Business

More competition is good for us:

https://futurism.com/mercedes-just-made-a-huge-play-that-could-threaten-teslas-home-battery-business/

Quantum Systems Synchronize Through Self-Organization

This is more science than technology, and who knows what it could lead to, but it's a fascinating phenomenon:

https://scitechdaily.com/quantum-systems-synchronize-through-self-organization/

Scientists Found a Low-Cost Way to Produce the World’s Cleanest Energy Source

https://futurism.com/scientists-found-low-cost-way-to-produce-the-worlds-cleanest-energy-source/

4 Keys to Making the Robots of Our Imagination a Reality

See the video for a soft, pneumatic robot:

https://singularityhub.com/2017/05/18/four-keys-to-making-the-robots-of-our-imagination-a-reality/

Solar Is Now the Cheapest Energy There Is in the Sunniest Parts of the World

My system is going up as I type this:

https://singularityhub.com/2017/05/18/solar-is-now-the-cheapest-energy-there-is-in-the-sunniest-parts-of-the-world/

Generating power from polluted air

A nice solution to two problems:

https://nano-magazine.com/news/2017/5/15/generating-power-from-polluted-air

Sorry, Westworld: We Should Be Able to Torture Robots

I think this guy is extremely short-sighted. The Westworld robots that aren't sapient can be abused, sure, but the point of the TV series is that WHEN they become sapient and capable of suffering, THEN torturing them is immoral. Assuming robots won't gain sapience is short-sighted...because you KNOW people will try their best to create A.I. indistinguishable from humans. It's in our nature. It's a technological Mount Everest to be conquered:

https://futurism.com/sorry-westworld-we-should-be-able-to-torture-robots/

Exercise Makes You Younger at the Cellular Level

Forget anti-aging creams and Spanx, it's a whole lot of exercise that keeps you young:

http://time.com/4776345/exercise-aging-telomeres/?xid=newsletter-brief

A Robot Can Print This $32,000 House in as Little as 8 Hours

It's just a small place now, but imagine building multiple small units that fit together:

https://futurism.com/a-robot-can-print-this-32000-house-in-as-little-as-8-hours/

My best friend is a robot – how automatons are infiltrating the family

This fits with my prediction that robots will not only replace servants and lovers, but friends, too:

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/science/my-best-friend-is-a-robot-how-automatons-are-infiltrating-the-family-1.3036489?mode=amp

This Israeli startup has a battery that can charge an electric car in 5 minutes

Quick charging is a critical component in electric car adoption:

https://thenextweb.com/insider/2017/05/11/this-israeli-startup-has-a-battery-that-can-charge-an-electric-car-in-5-minutes/

AI will rob companies of the best training tool they have: grunt work

No more internships = no more training for higher level positions:

https://qz.com/979812/how-ai-will-change-the-shape-of-organizations/

These Cells Are Engineered to Be Controlled by a Smartphone

https://singularityhub.com/2017/05/11/these-cells-are-engineered-to-be-controlled-by-a-smartphone/

Elon Musk: Tesla’s Solar Roofs Will Be Cheaper Than Regular Roofs & Have “Infinity Warranty”

This is bold:

https://futurism.com/elon-musk-just-announced-that-teslas-solar-roofs-will-have-an-infinity-warranty/

Though I'm not sure how efficient such solar cells would be, considering they need to be kept cool for maximum efficiency, which is a major reason why current cells are raised.

Startup Promises Immortality Through AI, Nanotechnology and Cloning

This is the first company I'm aware of that is explicitly working toward using nanotech to resuscitate frozen brains and provide them with replacement bodies...within 30 years:

https://nano-magazine.com/news/2017/5/10/startup-promises-immortality-through-ai-nanotechnology-and-cloning

Analysis predicts extremely disruptive, total transition to EV / autonomous vehicles in 13 years

This would be the most disruptive technological change since the smart phone:

https://m.techxplore.com/news/2017-05-analysis-extremely-disruptive-total-transition.html

Research Shows Cannabis Restores Memory and Could Reverse The Aging Process

It's high time scientists hash out a way to weed out aging:

https://futurism.com/5-story-research-shows-that-cannabis-can-restore-memory-and-could-reverse-the-ageing-process/

A New “Tube Transport” System Could Get You From New York to Beijing in 2 Hours

I have my doubts a safe and effective vacuum system can be maintained, at least in the near future, but...

https://futurism.com/a-new-tube-transport-system-could-get-you-from-new-york-to-beijing-in-2-hours/

Quantum Computing Demands a Whole New Kind of Programmer

Back to school, code monkeys!

https://singularityhub.com/2017/05/09/quantum-computing-demands-a-whole-new-kind-of-programmer/

A “World First” Fusion Reactor Just Created Its First Plasma

Could the end finally be in sight in the long wait for fusion power?

https://futurism.com/a-world-first-fusion-reactor-just-created-its-first-plasma/

Drug Discovery AI Can Do in a Day What Currently Takes Months

Sounds like this heralds a boom in designer medicine:

https://singularityhub.com/2017/05/07/drug-discovery-ai-can-do-in-a-day-what-currently-takes-months/

An AI just defeated human fighter pilots in an air combat simulator

I'd say this is the beginning of the end for fighter pilots:

https://binaryloom.com/an-ai-just-defeated-human-fighter-pilots-in-an-air-combat-simulator/

The Myth of a Superhuman AI

I don't agree with everything here (since I'm pretty sure for a variety of reasons that there will be a drive to make A.I. that is indistinguishable from humans), but still some good food for thought:

https://backchannel.com/the-myth-of-a-superhuman-ai-59282b686c62

Tricorder XPRIZE Awards $2.5M for Device That Detects Illness Using Your Phone

Take that, Bones!

https://singularityhub.com/2017/05/04/tricorder-xprize-awards-2-5m-for-device-that-detects-illness-using-your-phone/

China’s Tencent is a sleeping giant in the global artificial intelligence race

Yet another player in the A.I. race:

https://qz.com/974408/tencents-wechat-gives-it-an-advantage-in-the-global-artificial-intelligence-race/

An atomically thin layer of water stores more energy and delivers it faster, researchers discover

http://www.kurzweilai.net/an-atomically-thin-layer-of-water-stores-more-energy-and-delivers-it-faster-researchers-discover

Get moving, grandad! Exercise improves brain health in the over 50s

MOVE OR DIE!

https://www.theguardian.com/science/brain-flapping/2017/apr/26/get-moving-grandad-exercise-improves-brain-health-in-the-over-50s

Robots don’t have to take over jobs in order to be a problem for workers

This essentially flips the script on robots taking over the menial drudge work:

https://qz.com/972812/robots-dont-have-to-take-over-jobs-in-order-to-be-a-problem-for-workers/

DARPA Is Planning to Hack the Human Brain to Let Us “Upload” Skills

Here we go...

https://futurism.com/darpa-is-planning-to-hack-the-human-brain-to-let-us-upload-skills/

A delicious Indian berry contains a crucial ingredient for creating cheap solar cells

Not as efficient as current cells, but cheaper:

https://qz.com/969989/iit-an-indian-berry-contains-a-crucial-ingredient-for-creating-cheap-solar-cells/

How Batteries Could Revolutionize Renewable Energy

This caught my attention: "The largest battery in a Tesla, as one example, can store enough electricity to power the average American home for more than three days":

http://time.com/4756648/batteries-clean-energy-renewables/?xid=newsletter-brief